1 in 432 million

I have a friend who's a braggart. He's a egomaniac and has delusions of grandiosity. No doubt that he's very successful in his career but he ought to mount a better display of humility. After all, i believe, luck plays a part in our achievements. The greater your achievements, the greater the role luck has in it. Try telling that to my friend. He would have absolutely none of it. "I have superior genes and hence great intellect" is his rebuttal of choice. As evidence, he would use his 3 children as an example. You see, all 3 of his children have been awarded the highest awards by the State for academic achievements. According to him, that's irrefutable proof of his superior genes.

Here's some proof of mine. Nah, i can't claim that it's proof. At most it's just food for thought.

Suppose Mr Egomaniac's IQ is in the top 0.1 percentile of the population.
Suppose IQ is the sole determinant in the academic awards given out

Given these, what would you do to ensure that you latter generations are of superior quality?

That's right. Go sniff out a wife with superior IQ as well. It doesn't matter if she's ugly or what.

Now let's say you have a 50% chance in finding a wife with superior IQ.
Assume that IQ has a heritability of 50%.
Assume that the chance of you providing the optimal environment to realise the potential in your children is 50%.
Assume that 15,000 other students are vying for top awards with each of your children.
Assume that 15,000 other teenagers are in the same cohort but did not show enough promise to take the National Exams. (So all the smart ones are in the 15,000 that did take the National Exams)
Since just about all those vying for the Awards obtained perfect scores (ie. they all have excatly the same grades), assume that the chance of not getting the Awards even though u are the smartest and most talented is only 50%.

So let's do some math now.

1/2 chance of finding a clever wife X 1/2 chance of your child inheriting all your intelligence X 1/2 chance of providing your child with the right environment X 1/300 (your child got to fight it out with 300 other students with excatly the same grades as him) X 1/3 (you've got 3 children) X 1/2 chance that the panel giving out the Awards did not make a mistake in distinguishing the Chosen One

EQUALS

1 in 432 million!!!!!!

Now 1 in 432 million is the same chance as...................................

Striking toto, a 1 in 8 million chance event 3 times in 3 tries!!!!!!!!

Now is that luck or what?