Extradionary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one." - Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Charles Mackay

It has also been said that if you put a group of idiots in a room, allow them to exchange ideas, they will all come out of the room more convinced with the validity of their idiotic views than ever before. Rubbish in, rubbish out.

There were crusades, alchemists, witch hunts, and more recently, market bubbles. The most recent example of such madness is this: The vaccine/autism scare - people have stopped their children from getting vaccine shots due to fears of autism developing in their children.

Excerpts from the DISCOVER piece " Why Does the Vaccine/Autism Controversy Live On? "

How it all began

"The decadelong vaccine-autism saga began in 1998, when British gastroenterologist Andrew Wakefield and his colleagues published evidence in The Lancet suggesting they had tracked down a shocking cause of autism. Examining the digestive tracts of 12 children with behavioral disorders, nine of them autistic, the researchers found intestinal inflammation, which they pinned on the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine. Wakefield had a specific theory of how the MMR shot could trigger autism: The upset intestines, he conjectured, let toxins loose in the bloodstream, which then traveled to the brain. The vaccine was, in this view, effectively a poison. In a dramatic press conference, Wakefield announced the findings and sparked an instant media frenzy. For the British public, a retreat from the use of the MMR vaccine—and a rise in the incidence of measles—began."

The evidence against the link

"The strongest argument against the idea that thimerosal poisoned a generation of children does not emerge from the body of published studies alone. There is the added detail that although thimerosal is no longer present in any recommended childhood vaccines save the inactivated influenza vaccine—and hasn’t been, beyond trace amounts, since 2001—no one is hailing the end of autism. “If you thought thimerosal was related to autism, then the incidence of autism should have gone down,” Harvard’s McCormick explains. “And it hasn’t.”

In 2005 David Kirby stated that if autism rates didn’t begin to decline by 2007, “that would deal a severe blow to the autism-thimerosal hypothesis.” But as McCormick notes, despite the absence of thimerosal in vaccines, reports of autism cases have not fallen. In a 2008 study published in Archives of General Psychiatry, two researchers studying a California Department of Developmental Services database found that the prevalence of autism had actually continued increasing among the young. Kirby concedes that these findings about the California database represent a “pretty serious blow to the thimerosal-causes-autism hypothesis,” though he does not think they thoroughly bury it. In an interview, he outlined many problems with relying on the California database, suggesting potential confounding factors such as the state’s high level of immigration. “Look, I understand the desire to try to end this and not scare parents away from vaccination,” Kirby says. “But I also feel that sometimes that desire to prove or disprove blinds people on both sides.”"

The effects of the scare

"Disease, however, is the greatest danger associated with holding back vaccines amid the ongoing investigation of dubious claims. Both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated populations are placed at greater risk. Given enough vaccine exemptions and localized outbreaks, it is possible that largely vanquished diseases could become endemic again. (That is precisely what happened with measles in 2008 in the U.K., following the retreat from the MMR vaccine in the wake of the 1998 scare.) The public-health costs of such a development would be enormous—and they would not impact everyone equally. “If vaccine rates start to drop, who’s going to get affected?” Peter Hotez asks. “It’s going to be people who live in poor, crowded conditions. So it’s going to affect the poorest people in our country.”"

But still........

"The Internet has become a haven for a number of autism support groups that continually reinforce the vaccine-autism argument. This has led to the radicalization of some elements who have denounced scientists as “vaccine barbarians,” “pharmaceutical and medical killers,” and so on. And after all we have heard about environmental and chemical risks—some accurate, some not—people are now easily persuaded about all manner of toxin dangers."

The hypocrisy, stupidity and ignorance involved in Section 377A

ST Sep 22, 2007

Views divided, so gay sex law stays

By Jeremy Au Yong

THE decision on whether or not to decriminalise gay sex is a very divisive one and until there is a broader consensus on the matter, Singapore will stick to the status quo.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was explaining the Government's decision not to repeal section 377(A) of the Penal Code, even as it introduced to Parliament recently a raft of proposed changes to that law.

He was responding to a question from a Law undergraduate, who said she was concerned about the kind of image Singapore's stand on this issue left on foreigners, including the talent that it wished to draw here.

Mr Lee said in reply: 'If everybody felt like you in Singapore...we could change 377A and we would de-criminalise gay sex.

'But the fact is many people in Singapore feel passionately to the contrary to the point of view which you have argued. And you have to take cognizance of that.'

He said that the Government's view was that it should not push forward on this issue but follow along as societal views shifted.

'And as of today my judgment is the society is comfortable with our position. Leave the clause' he said.

Sharing his own views on homosexuality, he said it seemed to him that it was a trait people were born with.

He stressed, however, that that did not mean gays should set the tone here.

'My view is that gayness is something which is mostly inborn, some people are like that, some people are not. How they live their own lives is really for them to decide. It's a personal matter,' he said.

'I think the tone of the society should really be set by the heterosexuals and that's the way many Singaporeans feel.'

He also made clear that the issue was something Singapore would deal with on its own. It did not need foreign speakers coming here to 'add sugar and spice' to the debate.

He was referring to a recent decision by the Police to cancel the permit for Canadian academic Douglas Sanders to speak in Singapore on the subject.

'Within Singapore, we will have to work this out in our society, and I think that's what we will do,' he said.

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After Dr Ng Eng Hen gave an exemplary display of illogical thinking with his lame reply to Low Thia Khiang's questions on CPF, PM Lee Hsien Loong was next in the Shoot-myself-in-the-foot queue.

First of all, how was he able to conclude that the majority of Singaporeans were against repealing Section 377A? Surely not from this flawed and biased survey did by NTU? In that survey, the questions were phrased in this manner

• they were asked whether sex between two men or two women was 'plain wrong' and whether homosexuals or lesbians were 'disgusting'.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that such a survey, if used to justify Section 377A, commits the logical fallacy of equivocation. The equation "plain wrong" + "disgusting" does not equate to "a crime". "Plain wrong" is not the same kind of "wrong" as in a crime.

Digging one's nose in public would be considered disgusting to most. Why don't I see anyone arrested for that? Writing 1+1=3 in a math exam paper is "plain wrong" as well! Why aren't those who can't count sent to jail?

Another conclusion made in that survey was

• Through statistical calculations, the study concluded that 'intrinsic religiosity' - viewing religion as the primary driving force in life - was the strongest predictor of anti-gay sentiment here.

Not surprising isn't it? If laws are passed based on public consensus which in turn is based on religious views, can we truly say that Singapore is a secular country? Even Malaysia doesn't impose the religious views of its majority by barring it's Chinese citizens from eating pork!

Saying something like "'If everybody felt like you in Singapore...we could change 377A and we would de-criminalise gay sex" just highlights the hypocrisy practised by the government. I'm damn sure PM Lee went along with public opinion on the casino issue!

While i do acknowledge that a substantial proportion of Singaporeans who are against repealing Section 377A judging from the letters publish on Straits Times Forum such as these,

1) Gay teacher's outing not appropriate

2) Preserve marriage as an institution

3) Let's conserve our marriage constitution as one between man and woman

I have not seen a convincing argument backed by evidence that homosexuality is harmful to society.

All I see are arguments fraught with self-righteousness, self-imposed morality, misleading statistics that fails to acknowledge that correlation does not imply causation (ie. gays = higher rates of aids infection) and even clear cut lies.

Some of the most convincing studies have shown conclusively that homosexuality is genetic or at least congenital can be found here, in the June 2007 issue of Discover Magazine. Other informative reads include this John Hopkins Magazine article and this BBC article (The Boy who was Turned into a Girl).

As such, there is no reason to criminalise homosexuality because they cause no harm to anyone. If you think otherwise, i challenge you to prove it. Find me a peer-reviewed paper published on a reputable journal that shows that legalising homosexuality brings about harmful consequences.

What is astonishing is the amount of misinformation that is spread in the public on the nature of homosexuality. You can have people believing that AIDS is created by god to punish homosexuals, that gays are paedophiles or even that your son can become gay if he is under "bad" influences.

So why am I spending my time writing about homosexuals and defending their rights. No, I'm not a homosexual. It's just that I believe that no one should be made to suffer because of your hypocrisy, stupidity and ignorance.

What a crazy world!!

A crazy world! That's the sort of world we live in. It's a combination of mindless imitation, irrationality and the lack of knowledge that turns masses of people into idiots. Frequently, someone will laugh all the way to his bank, gloating at how the madness of the crowds made him rich. The following are some examples of the inexplicable behaviour exhibited by hordes of people:

1) Ownership of cars in Singapore: Instead of spending $80,000 on a car, why not invest that money? A return even a misery 5% PA would give you $333.33 a month, enough to cover you daily public transport fares. Is the cost of a perceived lowered social standing that great without a car? Perhaps we are all filthy rich in Singapore.

2) Vitamins: Having a balanced diet absolutely eliminates the need for vitamin supplements. The drug companies are good at marketing indeed

3) Free range eggs: Welfare groups turning crazy, successfully lobbied for the banning of caged eggs in Europe on flimsy grounds of welfare concern. Free range chickens actually suffer a higher mortality rate than their caged counterparts. Free range eggs also mean that prices of eggs will double due to inefficiency in production. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

4) Colostrum as a protein supplement for body building: Colostrum, also known as cow's first milk, tastes yucky and is deemed unfit for human consumption. As a result, colostrum is typically considered as a waste product. However some marketing genius managed to turn this waste product into an expensive protein supplement.

5) Fund managers: Very few funds manage to outperform the market in the long run, ie. 30 years time span. You are better off throwing darts to choose your own diversified portfolio of stocks to invest in and you don't even have to pay management fees.

6) Luxury goods, jewellery, and collectibles: Pure snob value and totally devoid of economical value.

7) Religion, seers, alternative medicine: Believers just want to believe. Tell them that it cannot be scientifically proven, they will come up with some hogwash concepts outside the realms of science and explain it with their alternative logic. I wonder if they do not believe in science, why are they using the products of science in their everyday life.

8) Slimming centres: The only way 2 ways to lose weight is to consume more calories than you eat or to undergo liposuction. Either exercise, eat less or pay your plastic surgeon, not the slimming centres.

9) Singapore's first world status: The homeless are labelled as "sleepers". Many do not have enough to retire at age 62. Call me biased but I'm one who believes that if a citizen is willing to work as a cleaner or construction worker, the wage earned must be sufficient to afford basic necessities.